By Rob Rains
The Cardinals’ front-office contingent should have two primary goals after they arrive in Dallas this weekend for the start of baseball’s annual winter meetings.
The first is to try to identify teams which realistically want to discuss a trade for third baseman Nolan Arenado.
The second is to gauge the level of interest, and what kind of prospect package a team would be willing to offer, in a trade for closer Ryan Helsley.
If the Cardinals want to be true to their stated goal of going through a “reset” in 2025, and truly committing themselves to giving playing time to young players, both are moves that need to happen.
Neither will be easy.
Here is a look at the obstacles and challenges that John Mozeliak and Chaim Bloom face in trying to trade both Arenado and Helsley.
Trading Arenado
The first obstacle is obvious. Arenado has a full no-trade clause, meaning he isn’t going to go anywhere he doesn’t want to go.
The second obstacle is his contract – a total of $74 million over the next three years. That would not be as steep of a hurdle if not for the third factor which will come up in any negotiations – how can a team predict what kind of player Arenado will be in 2025, and in the last two years of his deal?
The last two years have been tough for Arenado, who will turn 34 in April. He is coming off a season in which he hit .272 with only 16 home runs and 71 RBIs. A team trading for Arenado would likely expect more production than that.
The Cardinals have reportedly already been reaching out to some teams about possible interest in Arenado. While those teams have not been identified publicly, the list probably can be narrowed to five teams that one, could afford Arenado, two have a need for a third baseman, and three, are a team where Arenado likely would agree to play.
What also looms as a tough assignment for the Cardinals, however, is those teams could be shopping in the free agent market as well with Alex Bregman and Willy Adames – who could play third – available. Until those options are off the board, teams might want to wait on talking about Arenado.
The five teams which make sense for the Cardinals to approach about Arenado are the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies and Mariners. All are contending teams, with a need at the position.
What the Cardinals also have to decide as the talks progress is how much of the Arenado contract they are willing to eat in a possible deal. The math is simple – the more money the Cardinals are willing to pay, the better a prospect they can get in return.
If the Cardinals aren’t willing to pay much, if any, of the contract, there really isn’t much chance of getting more than a token return – but simply being able to get out from under that contract would be a win for the team, no matter what they get in return.
If Arenado is not on the roster, the Cardinals still have three viable options for the position – Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman and Thomas Saggese. All could also fit at second base, and Donovan is still projected to also get innings in left field, depending on what the Cardinals decide to do with their outfield alignment.
Trading Helsley
The Cardinals should find a lot more teams willing to discuss a trade for Helsley than Arenado, for obvious reasons. And that also creates a challenge for Mozeliak and Bloom.
Coming off his record-breaking 49-save season, Helsley has earned his status as one of the top closers in the game. So why should the Cardinals trade him?
The first reason is if the Cardinals are true to their “reset” plan in 2025, they will be going with a younger roster and likely won’t be contending for a division title, wasting Helsley’s true value.
Second, coming off his big 2024 season, Helsley’s trade value likely will never be higher. Add in the fact that he is eligible to be a free agent after next season, with the Cardinals unlikely to pay the salary that he could earn on that open market, and the trade scenario makes even more sense.
Some people would argue that the Cardinals might get more from a contending team if they held on to Helsley and traded him next July, but that puts the team in the position of hoping he doesn’t get hurt before then. A contending team, and there are plenty of them, also is more likely to offer a better package of prospects knowing they would have Helsley for an entire season.
In exchange for Helsley, the Cardinals should simply try to get the best package of prospects possible, regardless of position, and regardless of their level of experience. This team isn’t building for 2025, or maybe not even 2026, so getting a group of players who need another year or two in the minors should not be a problem.
Other trade possibilities
The Cardinals have two other pitchers under no-trade contracts in Sonny Gray and Miles Mikolas. Gray has reportedly said he wants to stay in St. Louis but if the Braves fail to bring back Max Fried and/or Charlie Morton, the Cardinals should ask again if he would be interested in such a deal. After all, Atlanta is about the same distance from Gray’s home in Nashville as it is to St. Louis.
Mikolas, a free agent after next year, likely will be harder to trade unless the Cardinals are willing to eat a portion of his salary as well. Steven Matz, also entering the final year of his four-year contract, does not have no-trade protection and thus should be easier to trade.
It also should not be out of the question that the Cardinals would consider trading Erick Fedde, acquired from the White Sox last July as part of the return for Tommy Edman. He also can be a free agent after the 2025 season.
Of course none of these trades have to happen during the winter meetings. There still is a lot of time left before spring training begins in Jupiter. What the Cardinals learn this week, however, should let them know which deals are possible – and if they can make moves this winter which truly will open up playing time opportunities and “reset” this team for 2025 and the future.
Follow Rob Rains on X @RobRains
Photo by AP courtesy of KSDK Sports
