By Rob Rains
One of John Mozeliak’s favorite words is “opportunistic.”
If there was one word to describe the approach that Mozeliak and the Cardinals will take during this week’s winter meetings, that would be the one.
When the meetings begin on Monday in Nashville, Mozeliak, the Cardinals’ president of baseball operations, and his front office staff will be looking to see what additional moves they can make to improve the team for 2024.
Following the free agent signings of starting pitchers Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, the Cardinals still are believed interested in adding one more starter. They also will be exploring bullpen options, and hope to find a partner, or two, that will clear up some of the clutter in the outfield.
Here is a closer look at what the Cardinals might be looking to accomplish at the meetings:
Add another starter
In signing Gray, Lynn and Gibson, the Cardinals committed nearly $100 million in guaranteed money. Even though they likely would still hope to add another top of the rotation arm, it isn’t likely they will want to commit to the kind of salary it would take to pull in one more of the top free agents.
That leaves a trade as the most likely avenue to add that starter, with Tampa Bay’s Tyler Glasnow and the White Sox’ Dylan Cease being mentioned as the top best starters who could be traded this week.
There will be a lot of competition for both, and it will take a pretty hefty trade package to pull off a deal. If the Cardinals do want to complete a trade, however, it needs to be for a starter who can join Gray at the top of the rotation. They already have enough starters to fill up the spots at the back end of the rotation.
Beef up the bullpen
This likely has a better chance of happening this week, simply because the available free agent relievers won’t feature the same type of price-tag as the starters. Two of the relievers available are from the Far East, one from Japan and one from South Korea, a market the Cardinals have mined with success in the past.
Yuki Matsui is a 28-year-old lefthander who has been one of the top relievers in Japan for several years. This season he recorded 39 saves while posting a 1.57 ERA, striking out 72 batters in 57 1/3 innings while issuing only 13 walks.
Over the last three seasons, Matsui has a combined total of 95 saves and has allowed only 24 earned runs in 152 innings, an ERA of 1.42.
The other Far East reliever ready to make the jump to the major leagues is Woo Suk Go from South Korea. A 25-year-old righthander, Go has 139 saves combined over the past five seasons, averaging more than a strikeout per inning pitched.
A possible reunion with Jordan Hicks would not be out of the question as well. A trade package of an outfielder for a reliever also is something the Cardinals would consider. One closer who rumors say could be available is Emmanuel Clase of Cleveland, a 25-year-old righthander who had 42 saves in 2022 and 44 this season.
Catch draft lottery fever
One of the results of the Cardinals’ last-place finish in the NL Central in 2023 was that they will be participating in the amateur draft lottery on Tuesday (4:30 p.m. St. Louis time, televised by MLB Network) that will determine the order of the top six selections in next summer’s draft.
Every team that did not reach the playoffs in 2023 is entered in the lottery, with the exception of the Nationals, who are not eligible for the lottery this year. The odds of the Cardinals receiving one of the top six picks is determined by a sliding percentage scale. The Cardinals have an 8.3 percent chance of getting the top overall pick, the fifth highest chance of any team.
The three teams with the worst records in 2023 – Oakland, Kansas City and Colorado – all have an 18.3 percent chance of getting the top pick, followed by the White Sox at 14 percent.
If there was no draft lottery, the Cardinals would have had the fifth overall pick in next summer’s draft.
The Cardinals have never picked higher than third in franchise history. The worst possible pick they could receive in the next year’s draft would be the 11th overall selection, if they are not selected for any of the six lottery picks. That would only happen if the four teams ahead of them in the lottery also were not selected.
The high first-round pick has added importance since the Cardinals had to forfeit their pick in the second round, approximately the 40th overall selection, as compensation for signing Gray.
Find a trading partner for an outfielder
This is a possible avenue for the Cardinals to find their additional starter or bullpen help, if they find the prices for free agent candidate more than they are willing to pay.
Trading Tyler O’Neill would appear to be a priority, with the names of Dylan Carlson and Alec Burleson also coming up in discussions with other teams. What could bring a bigger return than any of those three, however, would be if the Cardinals were willing to include Tommy Edman in a package for a pitcher.
With Masyn Winn appearing set to be the starting shortstop, Edman’s most likely lineup spot if he remains with the Cardinals is center field. As well as he played the position defensively in 2023 – basically at a Gold Glove level – the team must decide if he can hit well enough to justify being the full-time starter.
The Cardinals also have to weigh how long they believe it will be before prospect Victor Scott II is ready for the major leagues after a big regular season at Double A this year, followed by a very good fall season in Arizona.
Other teams likely will bring up Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan in potential deals, but it would be unlikely the Cardinals are looking to move either unless it is in a major, blockbuster deal for a number one starter.
Consider Rule 5 options
The Cardinals have one open spot on their 40-man roster, but of course could open up another spot with a trade in advance of the Rule 5 draft, which this year will begin at 1 p.m. St. Louis time on Wednesday.
A player selected in the Rule 5 draft has to remain on the active roster or the injured list for the entire season or be offered back to his former organization.
It is more likely the Cardinals could lose a player in the draft, with pitcher Ian Bedell a strong possibility. Bedell has battled elbow and arm injuries that limited him to just 8 1/3 innings in his two pro seasons. In 2023, however, he was healthy for the full season and the University of Missouri product logged 96 innings at Class A Peoria, striking out 106 batters and finishing the year with a 2.44 ERA while holding opponents to a .218 average.
The meetings run through Thursday.
Follow Rob Rains on Twitter @RobRains
Photo by AP courtesy of KSDK Sports
