By Rob Rains
If the Cardinals are going to bounce back from their last-place finish in 2023, almost every aspect of the team will have to be better than it was a year ago.
Specifically, the answers to these 10 questions likely will determine whether the Cardinals are still playing in October or once again fall short of the playoffs:
- Can Sonny Gray be an ace?
The biggest bet the Cardinals’ front office made over the winter was on Gray, signing him to a three-year contract to become their top starter. It’s not ideal that he will be on the injured list on opening day, but the team’s expectation is that he should not miss more than one or two starts because of his hamstring strain.
In the 30-plus starts that Gray hopes to make, he has to log innings, he has to give the Cardinals a chance to win and he has to be able to be a stopper and prevent long losing streaks – all ingredients of an ace. Even though wins have been devalued in recent years, for Gray to prove he belongs in the elite category, he needs to reach or come close to 20 victories. The last Cardinal to win 20 games in a season was Adam Wainwright in 2010, and they have only had four pitchers win at least 17 games in the last 13 years.
- Will Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt hit?
The team’s two cornerstone infielders weren’t happy with their performance in 2023, and both know they will need to produce more this season. In Goldschmidt’s case, he also had a very poor spring which leaves him with even more to prove as the regular-season begins.
The Cardinals have tried to surround Arenado and Goldschmidt with talented young players, but despite their potential, this team still will rise or fall in large part based on how well their two veterans perform. The team is looking for 30 homers, 100 RBIs and a .300 average from both.
- What did manager Oli Marmol learn from last year’s failures?
Marmol talked often over the winter, and also this spring, about all of the “self-evaluation” he underwent following the 91-loss season in 2023. Now it’s time to see what changes that will produce.
Marmol won’t have quite the pressure on him that might have been the case if the team had not given him a two-year contract extension this spring. The extension, however, won’t produce more wins on the field by itself. Any manager ultimately is judged by the team’s record and the scrutiny on Marmol won’t go away if the team has another poor season – with or without his new contract.
- Is Jordan Walker ready for a breakout season?
One of the team’s mistakes last season was mishandling Walker, who was sent back to the minors when there was no reason to make that move. Walker comes into this season as the established starter in right field, and while he is still learning the position and will make mistakes, the Cardinals primarily are counting on his bat being productive enough that they can live with his occasional defensive flaws.
Walker should be more comfortable this season, based on how much he learned last year, and a consistent role should let him improve on 2023’s total of 16 homers, 51 RBIs and a .276 average.
- How different will the lineup be with Brendan Donovan leading off every day?
There’s no accurate way to measure how much the Cardinals missed Donovan’s presence in the lineup last year, but watching him grind out at-bats this spring provided at least an idea of how different things could be this season. The team simply wasn’t able to replace Donovan’s grit, style of play and leadership while he was hurt last year.
Donovan likes the responsibility of hitting leadoff, and him getting on base consistently should give more RBI opportunities to the hitters in the middle of the lineup, something that didn’t happen last season. In the 112 games when Donovan did not hit in the leadoff spot, his replacements scored a combined 70 runs.
- What impact will Victor Scott II have?
A week into the 1985 season, an injury to Willie McGee opened a spot on the Cardinals’ roster for 23-year-old rookie speedster Vince Coleman. Coleman used that break to start running his way toward 110 stolen bases and the NL Rookie of the Year award. Could the same thing happen this season with Scott, also 23, who made the opening day roster because of an injury to Dylan Carlson?
Scott has played only 163 games in the minors, none above Double A, and as recently as June 25 of last year was playing in Class A Peoria, on his way toward tying for the minor-league lead with 94 stolen bases. He also won a Gold Glove. Scott will get a chance to play, and even if he is hitting ninth, he could provide a major spark to the lineup – if the team will turn him loose on the bases.
- Should fans be worried about the new rotation?
The front office’s off-season quest to add “pitching, pitching, pitching” led to the signing of three free agent starters – Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson – all veterans with a history of eating innings, to go with returning starters Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz.
Zack Thompson used Gray’s injury and a strong spring to wedge himself into the rotation. It will be interesting to see how long he stays there when Gray returns. After a rough stint in Florida, Gibson offered a glimmer of hope in his final pre-season start in Arizona, allowing only one run, no walks and striking out nine in five innings against the Cubs.
- Did the off-season moves improve the bullpen?
One of the reasons the Cardinals suffered so many blown saves in 2023 – in games which they actually led – was an injury that took Ryan Helsley out of that role. If he is healthy, that alone should make the relief corps better. Helsley also figures to have a much-improved supporting cast, even if one of the off=season additions, Keynan Middleton, will begin the year on the injured list with a forearm strain.
The three other newcomers, Andrew Kittredge, Riley O’Brien and Ryan Fernandez, all right-handers, join holdovers Giovanny Gallegos, JoJo Romero and Andre Pallante, with Matthew Liberatore earning the final spot, at least for now.
- Who will get the most starts in the third spot in the batting order?
If, and that is a big two-letter word, Goldschmidt is in the second spot and Arenado fourth, and they are hitting, this spot could be one of the best places to hit of any lineup in the majors. It seems tailor-made for lefthanded-hitting Nolan Gorman, who has proven he can hit against lefthanders, has improved his plate discipline and should be the team’s best power hitter.
One of the changes that Marmol has said he wants to make this season is to bring more stability to both the defensive positioning and the batting order. Sticking Gorman in the third spot and leaving him there would be a good place to start.
- When will Nootbaar, Edman and Carlson be able to play, and what will their roles be when they return?
The easiest part of this question to answer concerns Nootbaar, expected back in mid-April. He will return to his projected spot as the starting leftfielder, with Donovan moving back into his role as the DH/second baseman/Swiss Army knife, playing wherever he is needed.
The future for Edman and Carlson, when they return, isn’t quite as clear and likely depends mostly on how Scott is playing or if the team is dealing with another injury. Both could find themselves regulated to a backup role with limited opportunities.
Photo of Sonny Gray by AP courtesy of KSDK Sports
Follow Rob Rains on Twitter @RobRains
